Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
