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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles emit almost 5x greater global warming pollution than official figures indicate, according to a new analysis.

Growing Gap In Official and Real-World Emissions

Data reveals that PHEVs release just 19% lower CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel cars, according to research carried out by a advocacy group. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which suggested a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Researchers examined data from in-vehicle energy use meters of 800,000 vehicles registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while lab-reported figures are falling,” stated a lead analyst involved in the study. “That gap is growing and creates a serious problem. Consequently, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Key Factors Behind the Discrepancy

Researchers linked the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric mode relative to total distance. They determined that only a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, whereas lab assumptions assumed 84%.

Even, when running in EV mode, pollution levels were well above official estimates. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function independently, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for almost a third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several large automaker groups to escape over €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying compliance with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs would pay about €500 more annually in running costs than would be assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are obviously way off the mark,” stated a automotive expert. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and saving costs. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than standard petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Political Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid cars have lately been brought again into policy discussions as automakers have lobbied the European Union to weaken CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and resistance from EU countries with significant car industries.

Several high-level officials have proposed plug-in hybrids as a potential “flexibility” option to include in the regulation.

An independent energy economics expert, who was not involved with the study, called the analysis a “very useful contribution” after a long period in which segments of the car industry claimed there was too little information to accurately evaluate actual CO2 output.

“These findings demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the difference in official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for petrol or diesel vehicles,” they stated. “Any regulatory changes concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost caution and considering this evidence.”