Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
